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PUBLICATIONID : 8935
PUBLICATIONTYPE : 1
TYPE : Article
TITLE : Best practices in prediction for decision-making: Lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences
ORIG_TITLE : Best practices in prediction for decision-making: Lessons from the atmospheric and earth sciences
AUTHOR : Pielke, RA and RT Conant
FIRST_AUTHOR : Pielke, RA and RT Conant
AUTHOR_COUNT : 1
ADDRESS : Univ Colorado CIRES, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, Boulder, CO 80309 USA; Colorado State Univ, Nat Resource Ecol Lab, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA
PUBLISHER : ECOLOGICAL SOC AMER
FIRSTAUTHOREMPLOYER : 1
ABBREV_JOURNAL : Ecology
BEGINPAGE : 1351
ENDPAGE : 1358
VOLUME : 84
ISSUE : 6
PUBLISH_DATE : JUN
YEAR : 2003
URL : http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/2003.22.pdf
REFEREED : 1
RESOURCE : WOS:000184451900002
CITATION : 34
DEPT : CSTPR
LAST_UPDATED : 2017-05-24 12:54:16
ISSN : Dec-58
IDS : 706KB
DOI : 10.1890/0012-9658(2003)084[1351:BPIPFD]2.0.CO;2
ABSTRACT : Predictions that result from scientific research hold great appeal for decision-makers who are grappling with complex and controversial environmental issues, by promising to enhance their ability to determine a need for and outcomes of alternative decisions. A problem exists in that decision-makers and scientists in the public and private sectors solicit, produce, and use such predictions with little understanding of their accuracy or utility, and often without systematic evaluation or mechanisms of accountability. In order to contribute to a more effective role for ecological science in support of decision-making, this paper discusses three "best practices" for quantitative ecosystem modeling and prediction gleaned from research on modeling, prediction, and decision-making in the atmospheric and earth sciences. The lessons are distilled from a series of case studies and placed into the specific context of examples from ecological science.
KEYWORDS : atmospheric sciences; best practices; decision-makers; earth sciences; prediction; quantitative ecosystem modeling
KEYWORD_PLUS : ECOSYSTEM FUNCTION; BIODIVERSITY; POLICY; FORECASTS; CLIMATE
AREA : Environmental Sciences & Ecology
PUBLICATION : ECOLOGY
PLACE : WASHINGTON
LANGUAGE : English
SERIAL : 8935
PAGES : 1351-1358
APPROVED : yes
SERIES_VOLUME_NUMERIC : 1
ONLINE_PUBLICATION : no
VERSION : 1
FIRST_AUTHOR_ADDRESS : Pielke, RA (reprint author), Univ Colorado CIRES, Ctr Sci & Technol Policy Res, 1333 Grandview Ave,Campus Box 488, Boulder, CO 80309 USA.
AUTHOR_OTHER_FORM : Pielke, RA; Conant, RT
REFERENCES_NUM : 47
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PUBLISHER_ADDRESS : 1707 H ST NW, STE 400, WASHINGTON, DC 20006-3915 USA
COUNT : 1
RESEARCHID : Conant, Richard/B-7586-2013
ORCID : Conant, Richard/0000-0001-7315-2476
VETTED : 1