Lessons Learned, Lessons Lost by Roger A. Pielke, Jr., Chantal Simonpietri, and Jennifer Oxelson 12 July 1999
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IntroductionThirty years ago, Hurricane Camille struck the United States Gulf Coast with an unprecedented fury. Camille, a Saffir/Simpson Category 5 storm, was the strongest storm to directly strike the United States in the twentieth century. After wreaking havoc along the Gulf Coast, Camille's remnants deposited a tremendous amount of rain in the Appalachian Mountains of Virginia and West Virginia, causing further damage. All told, Camille caused more than 200 deaths and billions of dollars in damage. In its aftermath, the storm was called the greatest catastrophe ever to strike the United States and perhaps the most significant economic weather event in the world's history. For many, Camille is a distant memory, an historical footnote from a time long gone. But Camille is also a harbinger of disasters to come. Another storm of Camille's intensity will strike the United States, the only question is when. When this future storm strikes, it will make landfall over conditions drastically different from those in 1969. The hurricane-prone regions of the United States have developed dramatically as people have moved to the coast and the nation's wealth has grown. Estimates of potential losses from a single hurricane approach $100 billion. This report, and the web site of which it is a part, takes advantage of the thirtieth anniversary of Camille's landfall to raise awareness about the hurricane hazard facing the United States. This report reviews the Camille experience with an eye to lessons learned and lessons lost from that event. The subtext of this report is that many of the lessons of Camille have been relearned in subsequent hurricane impacts with hurricanes Agnes, Frederic, Alicia, Hugo, Andrew, Opal, and so forth. For the most part, society acknowledges its need to improve response to hurricanes. The greatest challenge we face is to turn that knowledge into practical action. Another storm like Camille might open a window of opportunity to improve the nation's hurricane policies, but it would be far better if, instead of waiting for that future storm, we learned the lessons that history has already provided. This report proceeds in four sections (after Pielke and Pielke 1997). Section I reviews the forecasts of the storm's approach and the subsequent evacuation. Section II examines the impacts of the storm, both along the Gulf Coast and in the Appalachian Mountains. Section III provides a review of the response to the event, and Section IV distills a number of the lessons learned. For those wishing to learn more about Camille, or hurricanes more generally, several bibliographies are included on this web site. We gratefully acknowledge the support of the NOAA Coastal Services Center in the development of this site. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
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Assessed Property Value |
1969-1970 | 1970-1971 | 1971-1972 |
$11,911,910 | $9,165,940 | $12,397,620 |
By totaling the results from Tables 2 and 3, a total cost value for Hurricane Camille is determined to be $1.122 billion (1969 dollars), which compares to the National Weather Service's official cost value of $1.420 billion. The discrepancy between total cost values may occur for a number of reasons: The Engineers' report does not provide complete data for Mobile and Baldwin Counties. The damages to Louisiana are reported as a lump sum incurred in the New Orleans “District" (USACE 1970, p. 74). The geographical area of that district may affect the cost value given for the state. Another significant discrepancy may be the exclusion of Florida damage values. The map of the county impact area includes flood damage to two Florida counties, Escambia and Santa Rosa. Yet, no Florida damage values are included in any economic impact statement for Hurricane Camille.
Structural Damage
On Monday, August 18, 1969, survivors emerged from shelters and observed skeletal foundations and remnants of buildings left by the storm (Figure 13). Residents of Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, returned to see all traces of civilization removed by a massive tidal surge washing over the Mississippi River levees (ESSA, 1969a). In the community of Buras along the Mississippi, six structures remained standing in an area where 6000 people had previously made their homes.
Hurricane Camille caused incredible damage to the buildings and structures along the Mississippi Gulf Coast, particularly to the waterfront areas of Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson Counties. Damage in the Mississippi Delta area was caused primarily by high water from the Gulf of Mexico. Some wind damage was evident, but the effects were secondary to the damage resulting from wind-driven waves on the surface of the storm surge (Criswell and Cummins 1970, p. 16). The most intense damage from Camille was sustained in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, and in the first several blocks inland along a 27-mile segment of shore between St. Louis Bay and Biloxi Bay. Many structures were completely leveled along certain sections of the coast (Figure 14). Based on Red Cross survey data, the impact of Hurricane Camille on property in Mississippi and Louisiana is summarized below (OEP 1969, p. 79):
5,662 homes destroyed 13,915 homes with major damage 33,933 homes with minor damage 1,082 mobile homes destroyed 621 mobile homes with major damage 775 farm buildings destroyed 2,289 farm buildings with major damage 679 small businesses destroyed or with major damage |
In addition, 32 boats were destroyed or severely damaged; at least five trucking terminals were completely destroyed, with damage to highways, bridges, railways and waterways running into millions of dollars (ESSA, 1969a). The port of Gulfport was almost completely destroyed, with at least 94 vessels sunk or grounded in the Mississippi River (Figures 15 and 16). Oil rigs foundered, pipelines were smashed, and land bases were destroyed. Enormous agricultural losses in crops, timberland, tung, pecan, and orange trees occurred, with some 5,000 head of cattle drowned (ESSA, 1969a). The majority of the damage to structures occurred in an area parallel to the Mississippi Gulf Coast and extending inland up to several blocks.
The extent of damage along the coast depended largely on local topography; some areas having greater elevation, were less exposed than others. Due to the circulation of Camille, the wind in the coastal areas changed direction numerous times. This change was partially responsible for the appearance of complete destruction in certain coastal areas. The tidal rise and wave action came from the south to southeast (Criswell and Cummins 1970, p. 17). The upper extent of vigorous wave action could be seen on tree trunks; the bark was torn off the seaward side of many trees at a height of 12 to 15 feet (Criswell and Cummins 1970, p. 18). The most heavily damaged areas along the Mississippi Gulf Coast included the Pass Christian vicinity, parts of Long Beach, and local waterfront areas between Biloxi and Gulfport (Criswell and Cummins 1970, p. 17) (Figure 17).
The coastal area along U.S. Highway 90 sustained significant damage (Figure 18). This area had previously been built up with a variety of construction types, including many large, old residences and several multistory hotels, motels, and apartments, as well as gasoline stations, restaurants, and retail stores (Criswell and Cummins 1970, p. 18). Many of the motels and apartments were completely leveled. Some of the older multistory buildings remained standing, although they sustained extensive damage to the lower stories. The first floors of many of the buildings, except for the framework, were completely demolished due to high water and the pounding of waves.
The downtown area of Gulfport and inland coastal areas had only relatively small amounts of structural damage. Some windows and signs were broken in the downtown area of Gulfport, and many first-floor areas suffered significant water damage (Criswell and Cummins 1970, p. 18). Other areas within Gulfport suffered window damage and destroyed roofs. Isolated pockets of residences inland were heavily damaged, with some homes leveled.
Building Codes
In the region affected by Camille, some modifications had been made to building standards following the severe hurricanes of Audrey (1957) and Betsy (1965). These preparatory measures included the “open beaches" decision which maintained an artificial sand beach south of Highway 90 and the seawall. Biloxi had enforced a local building code since a particularly severe hurricane caused significant damage in 1911. In 1965, after another major hurricane, Biloxi, Gulfport, and Long Beach adopted the Southern Standard Building Code. In addition, an informal standard of 10 feet above mean sea level was used as a guide by architects and the Federal Housing Authority as a criteria for mortgages (Leyden 1985). Despite these measures, a uniform building code with hurricane-related stipulations had not been adopted by the coastal counties. Had a code been implemented in the years before Hurricane Camille, the damages would have been less.
For the entire length of the Mississippi coast extending three to four blocks inland, the destruction from Hurricane Camille was almost complete. Residences, motels, apartments, restaurants, and other buildings were swept off their foundations, demolished, and deposited in piles of scrap lumber and rubble together with fallen trees, smashed automobiles, and grounded boats (USACE 1970, p. 65) (Figure 19). Only a stairway remained from a house designed by a local architect to be “hurricane proof". The designer's body and those of several of his friends who had attempted to wait out the storm in his house were found 45 days later (Leyden 1985, p. 4). The survival of various structures depended largely upon design and materials used for construction. Some types of structures withstood the wind and water impacts far greater than others.
Many commercial buildings and apartment complexes along the Gulf Coast were constructed with masonry block structure. These structures generally did not withstand the water and wind (Criswell and Cummins 1970, p. 19). A large number of buildings collapsed totally with little evidence remaining to indicate the original appearance of the structure. (Figure 20). Light steel or concrete frame buildings were adequate; often the frame was still standing, but the walls and roof had collapsed. Heavier frame and masonry structures, such as multistory hotels in downtown areas, sustained only superficial damage to windows, signs, and awnings. Nearly all piers and boat docks along the Gulf Coast were completely destroyed (Criswell and Cummins 1970, p. 22). Piling is generally all that remained of the piers. However, the seawall extending along US Highway 90 sustained little damage. Levees were breached or washed out in many areas on the Mississippi River (Criswell and Cummins 1970, p. 22).
Many concrete and steel structures collapsed, whereas the less rigid wooden structures were more successful. The topography had a large influence on wooden frame buildings. Those that were more exposed were often leveled or destroyed (Criswell and Cummins 1970, p. 20). The older wooden buildings were better constructed, and so functioned as a unit, whereas the unconsolidated masonry structures collapsed (Zornig and Sherwood 1969, p. 14). The design mechanisms utilized in construction of the older wooden buildings also paid closer attention to structural integrity of the materials they were using. This in turn created buildings with very high safety factors (Criswell and Cummins 1970, p. 20).
Federal, State and Local Response
Throughout the day immediately following the storm, many agencies and volunteer groups aided the thousands of residents whose homes were destroyed or severely damaged. Thousands of displaced persons were provided shelter, food, clothing, and medicine by various federal, state, and local agencies and by donations through relief organizations (USACE 1970, p. 32). These actions are summarized in Table 4.
On August 19, the Office of Emergency Preparedness (OEP) announced that the President had declared portions of Mississippi and Louisiana to be major disaster areas and therefore eligible for federal disaster relief funds. OEP then took over the coordination of the numerous relief agencies and instructed the Mobile District to begin the process of cleanup of debris and temporary repairs to the public facilities not included within the federal jurisdiction (USACE 1970, p. 71). There were 8 agencies involved extensively in the post-storm relief process, and 17 other agencies who were involved to a lesser extent. The activities of the eight major agencies are described below; the response of all involved agencies outlined in Table 4.
The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) provided mobile homes to house the victims as soon as authority was given. Despite difficulties in transportation, failure of suppliers, problems of site clearance, and restoration of water and sewage services, about 5,000 mobile homes were delivered (USACE 1970, p. 71). Victims of the storm began moving in one week after Camille hit. Over 3,000 of the mobile homes delivered were used in Mississippi.
The Department of Defense contributed greatly to the relief process, with a total of 16,500 military personnel from numerous divisions (OEP 1969, p. 9). The Army aided in helicopter rescue operations removing people from locations cut off from all other access. Army personnel also brought much-needed food, medical supplies, and potable water for the thousands of displaced people. Battalions cleared 575 miles of roads and removed more than 37,000 tons of debris (OEP 1969, p. 10). The Army Corps of Engineers alone removed 1 ¼ million tons of debris by mid-November, culminating a $49 million (1969 US dollars) operation (OEP 1969, p. 13).
The Department of the Treasury responded quickly to the financial concerns and demands of the communities affected by the hurricane. Emergency offices, at a cost of $20,000 (1969 dollars), were established to disburse checks to those receiving rehabilitation loans. Through December 10, 1969, 75,000 checks were delivered, totaling $25 million (1969 dollars) in rehabilitation loans (OEP 1969, p. 5). The Treasury also allowed redemption of savings bonds in advance of the normal waiting period. The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) distributed information on casualty deductions, offered assistance and counseling, and arranged for speedy refunds to special claims in the 1970 filing period (OEP 1969, p. 7).
The Community Relations Service (CRS), a division of the Department of Justice, acted as a vital link between the survivors and the available resources arriving in the affected area. CRS placed 400 emergency telephone calls between survivors and concerned family members throughout the rest of the country and world. Employees of CRS acquired, stored, and distributed 30-50 tons of bedding that survived the storm in the Hotel Biloxi (OEP 1969, p. 20). CRS also arranged for storage and distribution of 40,000 textbooks donated by New York School Districts (OEP 1969, p. 21). In addition, the Federal Bureau of Investigation assisted the coroner in the processing of 30 unidentified victims.
The Department of Agriculture responded immediately to the growing pest problem which developed following the hurricane. The Plant Pest Control Division (PPC) was called upon to mitigate growing numbers of mosquitoes and flies, but the lack of phone lines obstructed communication between outside agencies and the PPC. The home telephone of the PPC administrator provided a key link between Gulfport and the outside world. Fire ants moving from flooded areas to higher grounds became a major problem, stinging survivors, rescue workers, and invading homes. Over 2.5 million US $ (1969 dollars) of emergency conservation funds were allocated to rehabilitate farmlands and replace damaged conservation structures (OEP 1969, p. 30). In addition, as of November 28, 1969, the Farmers Home Administration had approved 353 out of 661 emergency loan applications from Mississippi farmers, totaling almost 3 million dollars (OEP, 1969, pg 32).
The Department of Commerce was closely involved with the plans for economic rehabilitation of damaged communities. The Economic Development Administration (EDA) did extensive economic planning and development work to deal with the sudden rise in unemployment, as well as to plan and coordinate the redevelopment following the hurricane. Following the hurricane, some 28 public works and business loan projects totaling $30 million (1969 dollars) had been identified for further consideration for EDA assistance (OEP 1969, p. 37). Immediately following Hurricane Camille, the Weather Bureau with the Department of Defense began a study of ways to better predict the direction and intensity of hurricanes. This study was spurred by Vice President Agnew's statement that Hurricane Camille forecasting may have been inadequate.
The Department of Health furnished more than $ 4 million in materials, services, and funds to the stricken areas (OEP 1969, p. 42). Cots, blankets, typhoid vaccines, and other medications were supplied to the survivors. The Food and Drug Administration spent more than 1500 man hours surveying the Mississippi food establishments to ensure safety and proper health codes. The Health Department also brought in temporary classrooms to aid the 21 local school districts which received damage from the hurricane.
The American Red Cross played a key role in providing some semblance of comfort and accommodations to the displaced people. Shelters for 85,000 people were established prior to the storm. Relief centers manned by volunteers were accessible after the storm to provide financial assistance and services such as food stamp disbursement to the victims. In total, 913 volunteers and 805 professional staff members were assigned to the affected area (OEP 1969, p. 79). Red Cross personnel questioned the survivors for an inventory of deaths, damages, and to determine what assistance was necessary. The cumulative Red Cross relief operation totaled almost 15 million US $ (1969 dollars) (OEP 1969, p. 82).
Mitigation
The damages caused by Hurricane Camille have been examined by several people in the interest of reducing the vulnerability of the coastal counties (Leyden 1985; Godschalk et al. 1989; Metasystems 1970; Petak and Atkisson 1982; Black 1970; Dikkers et al. 1971). Prior to Hurricane Camille, many of the Gulf Coast communities did not have any planning or zoning in place. The development and building practices in existence at the time of Camille had been greatly influenced by the gradual uncontrolled and disorganized growth which had taken place in the coastal communities for the previous 100 years (Leyden 1985). Many buildings existed in areas vulnerable to possible storm surge. The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) had very recently been passed and was in its infant stages of implementation. Therefore, no properties were covered under this plan. Of the total damages resulting from Hurricane Camille, only 20% were covered by existing flood insurance (Leyden 1985, p. 32).
Many of the buildings were poorly constructed to withstand the high winds and wave action natural to hurricanes. Leyden (1985) found that conventional construction of any type proved to be inadequate to resist the storm surge and accompanying wave action. Evacuation routes had been planned, but in Harrison County many extended over low-lying bridges which were eventually inundated by the high waters of Camille. Coastal Highway 90 was flooded to depths of 12 feet, and both the Biloxi-Ocean Springs Bridge and the Pass Christian-Bay St. Louis Bridge were washed out (USACE 1970). In addition, only 50% of inhabitants (50,000) evacuated (USACE 1970). This left a large portion of the coastal population at risk in their own homes or shelters (15,562 in emergency shelters, 50,000 stayed at home) (USACE 1970).
A massive rebuilding effort took place in the months and years following the hurricane. Ironically, hurricane mitigation was not a key thought to those rebuilding immediately after Camille. A need for structures to live and work out of led to a rapid rebuilding effort. The same characteristics which led to absolute destruction of homes and businesses were repeated in the months immediately following the hurricane. Confusion immediately following Camille allowed unregulated repairs and rebuilding. Building permits were initially waived, then a non-uniform moratorium was imposed, then lifted again, prior to the new building code being in place (Godschalk et al.1989, p. 59). Once the new building code was imposed it helped raise Gulfport revenues from building permit fees by 347% in 1969-1970 (Leyden 1985, p. 31).
The building code was not enforced in many locations where previously poor construction led to complete destruction of homes. The implementation of the code was adopted by municipalities at various times throughout 1969 and 1970. Leyden (1985) remarked that the inability of people involved in the development of the code and the regional enforcement scheme contributed to the inefficiency of, and lack of acceptance for, the program. Godschalk et al. (1989) proposes that “all new structures built within the affected counties must meet a lateral wind force standard equivalent to three times that of the 1973 Universal Building Code."
The rebuild of the Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama Gulf Coast following Hurricane Camille could have acted as an impetus to develop a coastal community development plan allowing for economic growth and resurgence, and guaranteeing preparedness in the event of a repeat storm of equal magnitude. Rather than supporting unchecked growth with no regard for future hazard mitigation, development could have been steered in a direction that was conscious of the vulnerability of local residents and communities. Hazard mitigation policies might have been adopted at the county or state level, thereby eliminating the discrepancy in level of preparedness between coastal municipalities.
Leyden (1985) found that the introduction of development management by regional authorities and the state and federal governments was politically unpopular, but “crucial to the acceptance of even the barest minimum of land use regulation after the storm." Leyden also proposed that legislation which enables states might have improved planning to the affected counties.
Hurricane Camille decimated buildings at Henderson Point with waves up to 22.4 feet above mean sea level. Yet, in 1984 a 69-unit condominium project was built on land leveled during Hurricane Camille at Henderson Point (Leyden 1985, p. 73). This project is built as a replica of the old Biloxi Yacht Club on the south side of Highway 90 in a location where the original building was washed away by Hurricane Camille.
Godschalk et al. (1989) recommended that new waterfront construction be restricted only to water-dependent uses. In addition, he suggested that the existing uses on the Gulf side of Highway 90 be designated as non-conforming, in order to bring about their eventual elimination. Many municipalities along the Gulf Coast have showed some support for movement away from development concentrated upon the coast. Commercial and residential building records for Harrison County indicated a shift in development to the northern, non-hazard areas of the county following Camille (Godschalk et al. 1989, p. 59). Prior to Camille, Biloxi acquired 45 parcels of beachfront property in an area designated at that time by the city for an urban renewal project. In September 1969, following destruction of this area by Camille, and motivated by the dire and immediate need to provide ample low-income housing, the property was discussed and a contractor hired to create a neighborhood redevelopment plan. On the same evening that the redevelopment study was granted, Biloxi approved a 198-unit, 13-story high rise apartment on the waterfront immediately adjacent to the urban renewal land (Leyden 1985).
Other proposals include allowing no further growth on the 50-year floodplain after 1980 (Petak and Atkisson 1982). Since 1980, the communities of Gulfport, Long Beach, Pass Christian, and Biloxi have implemented floodplain ordinances that allow construction within the floodplain but require all projects to comply with the minimum elevation and flood proofing requirements of the Federal Insurance Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Association (Leyden 1985, p. 64). Limiting the growth on the floodplain is targeted at reducing the growth of property and people vulnerable to a storm surge.
Godschalk et al. (1989) suggests limiting the allowable density in high hazard areas, including the down-zoning of multi-family areas. After Camille, many residential areas were rezoned for commercial use. The two causes for this rezoning were: the opportunity to enlarge the municipalities' sorely depleted tax base, and the argument that land parcels under eight feet of water during Camille were not suitable for the higher-priced homes that the typical large lot size dictated (Leyden 1985, p. 62). Much of the beachfront property zoned after Camille to remain as open beach in “public use" has been manipulated to the degree where “public use" now includes marinas, amusement parks, zoos, circuses, carnivals, sports venues, and so forth.
This review of Hurricane Camille supports the notion that we as a society have learned a great deal about how to respond to hurricanes. Pielke and Pielke (1997) provided a list of ten important lessons from hurricanes. These lessons are repeated here and discussed in the context of Camille.
1. Hurricanes, (generally called tropical cyclones) are the most costly natural disaster in the United States (and worldwide).
Hurricane Camille, at the time, was called the most costly natural disaster ever to occur. The same was said of Hurricane Andrew in 1992. In aggregate, only large earthquakes have the damage potential that a storm like Camille presents to developed coastal locations. This is true not only in the U.S., but around the world as well.
2. Hurricane damages in the United States have risen dramatically during an extended period of hurricane quiescence.
After Camille, it was 20 years until another storm of Category 4 strength (much less Category 5) hit the US (Hugo). During this time, tremendous growth occurred along the nation's coasts. Pielke and Landsea (1998) estimate that Camille would cause more than $11 billion in damages were it to occur in 1998, which is dwarfed by the estimated $80 billion in damages that a recurrence of the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane would cause in 1998. A direct hit of a storm like Camille on Miami or New Orleans could exceed even this large amount.
3. A large loss of life is still possible in the United States.
Camille occurred when there were many fewer people in vulnerable coastal locations. Consider that only 150,000 people were ordered to evacuate during Camille's approach, this compares with more than 750,000 ordered to evacuate when Andrew approached south Florida in 1992. Inhabitants along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are fortunate in that hurricane watches and warnings are readily available, as are shelters and well-conceived evacuation routes. However, this should not give reason for complacency -- the hurricane problem cannot be said to be solved. Disaster planners have developed a number of scenarios that result in a large loss of life here in the United States. For instance, imagine a situation of gridlock as evacuees seek to flee the Florida Keys on the only available road. Or imagine New Orleans, with much of the city below sea level, suffering the brunt of a storm like Camille, resulting in tremendous flooding to that low-lying city. Scenarios such as these require constant attention to saving lives. Because the nature of the hurricane problem is constantly changing as society changes, the hurricane problem can never be said to be solved.
4. Tropical cyclone forecasts (seasonal and of intensity and landfall) can continue to improve; however, societal benefits associated with them depend upon using them effectively.
Forecasters have come a long way since Camille. Forecasters can show great improvements in forecasts over the past 30 years. But achieving benefits from improved forecasts will remain a challenging task. Consider that at the same time that hurricane forecasts have become more accurate, the actual length of coastline warned per storm by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has increased from less than 300 nautical miles (nm) in the late 1960s to about 400 nm over the past ten years. According to the authors of a recent paper that documented the increase in miles-of-coast warned, Jerry Jarrell (current NHC Director) and Mark DeMaria, “the increase is somewhat surprising, because, since 1970 . . . official NHC track forecasts have been decreasing at about 1% per year. They speculate that the improvement in track forecasts has instead translated into longer lead time, which has increased from about 18 hours to 24 hours, from the time the first warning is issued to the time that the storm's center crosses the coast. But there are other possible explanations as well, including (a) the desire of emergency managers (and elected officials) to base evacuation decisions on the NHC warnings, and thus request warnings be extended to cover their communities; (b) a desire throughout the evacuation decision process to avoid the error of a strike on an unwarned population, (thus, the forecast improvement could have translated into lower risk); and (c) the fact that more and more people inhabit the coast, meaning that evacuation times are much larger, making necessary longer lead times and greater lengths of coastline warned. Unfortunately, in spite of the existence of these hypotheses, it has not been convincingly demonstrated why the coastline-warned-per-storm has increased during a period of decreasing forecast errors. Given the large costs involved with overwarning, both in unnecessary preparations and in potential public response, it would seem to be in the best interests of forecasters, policy officials, and the general public to obtain a greater understanding the use of hurricane forecasts.
5. The climate varies on all measurable time scales.
Hurricanes have occurred with different frequencies over time. A storm like Camille is indeed a rare event. But a storm like Camille can – and will – occur again. The only question is where and when. Therefore, as scientists work diligently to better understand the nature of hurricane climatology, it is important for decision makers to understand that their experiences might not be representative of the future climate. The next decades could be quiet, or they could be active. Are we prepared for hurricane variability?
6. Recent trends in hurricane frequencies and intensities are not evidence of global warming, and there is considerable reason to better prepare for hurricanes independent of concern about global warming.
The phrase "global warming" refers to the possibility that the earth's climate may change because human activities are altering the composition of the atmosphere. Scientists first raised this possibility more than a century ago, and in recent decades policymakers have begun to express concern about the possibility of climate change. Hurricane are often mentioned as a future consequence of climate change.
Does one need to rely on concerns about global warming to motivate improved hurricane preparedness? No. On the contrary, there are many reasons for the public and policy makers to have an increasing concern about the impacts of hurricanes; and this concern is independent of the global warming hypothesis.
Given the extensive social and demographic changes since the period of relatively high hurricane incidence earlier this century, it is not only important but imperative to ask whether our current hurricane preparation and response strategies would stand up should the high incidence of landfall along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts return. Before asking if we are prepared for the future, we ought to ask if we are prepared even for past known events and climate fluctuations. The future is uncertain, the recent past, however, is certain. The thirtieth anniversary of Camille's impact provides a convenient opportunity to ask such a question.
Once we consider ourselves "prepared for the past," - so to speak, - we can seek additional proactive improvements for the future. While analysis based on global warming remains inconclusive, history tells us with some degree of certainty that the incidence of hurricanes will eventually increase. What will we do if the next several decades were to witness the hurricane activity of the 1940s and 1950s?
7. Tropical cyclone landfalls highlight the existing level of societal preparedness.
Hurricane Camille, like every storm, provides a real-world test of the existing level of preparedness. Without exception, each storm reveals areas where society could have been better prepared or, less vulnerable. If we are to identify those actions needed to improve a community's preparation for hurricane impacts, then we must focus attention on ways to ascertain a community's exposure before a hurricane strikes. This means that we must support efforts to grapple with the messy and challenging task of assessment of hurricane preparedness. Instead of relying on a storm to show us how well we are doing, we could take on this challenge as a “cost of doing business" and perhaps over the long run reduce our vulnerability to hurricanes.
8. Short-term decisions are based upon decision processes developed over the long term.
When a hurricane makes landfall, it results in extreme disruption to affected communities. Lines of communication, power, transportation, and other infrastructure will likely be severed. People will face dislocation and, in worst case scenarios, injuries and possible death. In contrast to the normal pace of community decision making, the situation is complicated further by the relative speed with which a hurricane appears and makes landfall. Consequently, there is little time for careful consideration of alternative courses of action, and there might be tendencies for snap decisions without reasoned assessment of the possible consequences.
For all of these reasons, societal responses to hurricanes made in the face of an approaching storm and in its immediate aftermath are most effective when they are based upon decision processes developed over the long term.
With Camille, the preparations for the event and the response were based on processes put in place long before the storm made landfall. Coordination between government agencies as well as with state and local officials was enhanced because of preexisting plans. Experience with other storms, such as Andrew in 1992, shows that coordination is an ongoing challenge. Attention to the health of hurricane decision process can help to ensure that when an event does occur, preparations result in effective decisions.
9. Better knowledge of hurricanes, by itself, is generally not sufficient for behavior change.
Just because society has “learned a lesson" does not mean that the lesson will be implemented. Indeed, many of the lessons to be gleaned from the experience with Hurricane Camille were also learned in the aftermath of Andrew. Lessons gleaned from experience with past disasters are central to proactive action. Without fail, in the aftermath of every hurricane's impact, general lessons for coping with hurricanes are drawn, but typically are soon forgotten, only to have to be relearned by another community (and sometimes in the same community) in the aftermath of the next hurricane. The difficulty in learning lessons is vividly underscored, as in the aftermath of Camille when land developers and home owners rebuilt in vulnerable locations. One element in motivating proactive action with respect to hurricanes is a solid foundation of knowledge of the lessons of experience. Of course, also necessary is the dedication of people and communities who have the foresight and will to act before a storm strikes.
The final lesson is that "society knows, in large part, how to respond to hurricanes." One of the most frustrating aspects of society's response to hurricanes (and natural hazards more generally) is the realization that in many cases society currently knows enough to take effective actions to reduce its vulnerabilities. Hurricane Camille revealed many lessons that are as important today as they were 30 years ago. As the nation continues to increase its vulnerability to hurricanes it will be more and more important to take the knowledge that has been gained from research and experience and to turn it into practical action. As Camille showed, the stakes are high.
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