Comments on: More Peer-Reviewed Discussion on Hurricanes and Climate Change http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3825 Wed, 29 Jul 2009 22:36:51 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.1 hourly 1 By: Jim Clarke http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3825&cpage=1#comment-4641 Jim Clarke Fri, 19 May 2006 19:08:17 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3825#comment-4641 Roger C, The 60's through the 80's were hardly 'normal' in Florida. The lack of hurricanes was unprecident in the historical record. For example, the center of a hurricane did not pass within 50 miles of Ft. Myers (Southwest Florida) between Donna in 1960 to Charley in 2004. The biggest gap in the historical record before 1960 was from 1910 to 1924. From 1872 to 1960, the average was 2 hurricanes every 9.6 years! Southwest Florida needs to be hit by a hurricane every year for the next 8 years just to get back to the historical average! It is too easy to give people the impression that "something is wrong" with the number of hurricanes these days. The facts indicate that the real anamoly was the lack of storms for several decades, not the current activity. As to why would people live here? It is beautiful most of the time and we know how to prepare for those times that it isn't. Not enough people do prepare, but we do know how to do it. Roger C,

The 60’s through the 80’s were hardly ‘normal’ in Florida. The lack of hurricanes was unprecident in the historical record. For example, the center of a hurricane did not pass within 50 miles of Ft. Myers (Southwest Florida) between Donna in 1960 to Charley in 2004. The biggest gap in the historical record before 1960 was from 1910 to 1924. From 1872 to 1960, the average was 2 hurricanes every 9.6 years! Southwest Florida needs to be hit by a hurricane every year for the next 8 years just to get back to the historical average!

It is too easy to give people the impression that “something is wrong” with the number of hurricanes these days. The facts indicate that the real anamoly was the lack of storms for several decades, not the current activity.

As to why would people live here? It is beautiful most of the time and we know how to prepare for those times that it isn’t. Not enough people do prepare, but we do know how to do it.

]]> By: Eli Rabett http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3825&cpage=1#comment-4640 Eli Rabett Thu, 18 May 2006 04:34:03 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3825#comment-4640 A voice from afar http://www.wftv.com/news/9235304/detail.html# A voice from afar http://www.wftv.com/news/9235304/detail.html#

]]> By: Steve Bloom http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3825&cpage=1#comment-4639 Steve Bloom Wed, 17 May 2006 07:53:41 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3825#comment-4639 Roger C., if one can imagine things eventually returning to "normal" (as in the low hurricane levels of the '60s-'70s), then it's a lot easier to imagine trying to ride things out as contrasted to a future filled with increasing numbers of strong hurricanes. Roger C., if one can imagine things eventually returning to “normal” (as in the low hurricane levels of the ’60s-’70s), then it’s a lot easier to imagine trying to ride things out as contrasted to a future filled with increasing numbers of strong hurricanes.

]]> By: Roger C http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3825&cpage=1#comment-4638 Roger C Tue, 16 May 2006 17:08:14 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3825#comment-4638 In my humble opinion it boils down to this. if you build on the Gulf Coast you will be impacted, sooner or later by a hurricane. Arguing over how much sooner you will be impacted because global warming affects hurricanes obscures the real issue: why the heck should you build there in the first place. In my humble opinion it boils down to this. if you build on the Gulf Coast you will be impacted, sooner or later by a hurricane. Arguing over how much sooner you will be impacted because global warming affects hurricanes obscures the real issue: why the heck should you build there in the first place.

]]> By: llewelly http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3825&cpage=1#comment-4637 llewelly Tue, 16 May 2006 03:56:53 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3825#comment-4637 Chip - and anyone else posting links here - to avoid confusion, please place a space after the last character of any link you post. The close parentheses following Chip's link to Michaels, P.J. et al is added to the end of the uri by the software used by this forum, resulting in an incorrect link. (This occurs because a close parentheses is allowed in a uri, therefor the software cannot readily 'know' that the close parentheses is not intended to be part of the uri. A space is not allowed in a uri, unless it is escaped.) Correct link: http://www.worldclimatereport.com/wp-images/michaels_etal_GRL06.pdf Chip – and anyone else posting links here – to avoid confusion, please place a space after the last character of any link you post.

The close parentheses following Chip’s link to Michaels, P.J. et al is added to the end of the uri by the software used by this forum, resulting in an incorrect link. (This occurs because a close parentheses is allowed in a uri, therefor the software cannot readily ‘know’ that the close parentheses is not intended to be part of the uri. A space is not allowed in a uri, unless it is escaped.)

Correct link: http://www.worldclimatereport.com/wp-images/michaels_etal_GRL06.pdf

]]> By: Eli Rabett http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3825&cpage=1#comment-4636 Eli Rabett Tue, 16 May 2006 02:57:01 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3825#comment-4636 On page 2 the 2 in CO2 should be a subscript. In any case I look forward to the sequels. On page 2 the 2 in CO2 should be a subscript.

In any case I look forward to the sequels.

]]> By: Chip Knappenberger http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3825&cpage=1#comment-4635 Chip Knappenberger Mon, 15 May 2006 19:05:01 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3825#comment-4635 Here is another addition to the list of peer-reviewed articles on hurricanes and climate change: Michaels, P.J., Knappenberger, P.C., Davis, R.E., 2006. Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:1029/2006GL025757. (available from http://www.worldclimatereport.com/wp-images/michaels_etal_GRL06.pdf) Here is another addition to the list of peer-reviewed articles on hurricanes and climate change:

Michaels, P.J., Knappenberger, P.C., Davis, R.E., 2006. Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:1029/2006GL025757.

(available from http://www.worldclimatereport.com/wp-images/michaels_etal_GRL06.pdf)

]]> By: Roger Pielke, Jr. http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3825&cpage=1#comment-4634 Roger Pielke, Jr. Mon, 15 May 2006 17:24:03 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3825#comment-4634 JAI- See these: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/index.html#000800 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/outreach/media_resources/hurricanes_globalwarming/ JAI-

See these:

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/index.html#000800

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/outreach/media_resources/hurricanes_globalwarming/

]]> By: JustAnotherInfidel http://cstpr.colorado.edu/prometheus/?p=3825&cpage=1#comment-4633 JustAnotherInfidel Mon, 15 May 2006 17:15:42 +0000 http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheusreborn/?p=3825#comment-4633 Dr. Pielke-- I grew up in Galveston, TX, and am quite familiar with hurricanes and their impact on the Gulf Coast. I am much less familiar with Pacific huricanes (cyclones) and their normal paths/impacts. The global sea surface temperature has risen uniformly, from the graph in the second paper, it seems. Because huricanes thrive on high surface temperature, it also seems that we should see the trends (if they exist) of more frequent and stronger storms mirrored in the Pacific cyclones as we supposedly see in the Atlantic huricanes. Have any studies been conducted along these lines? Dr. Pielke–

I grew up in Galveston, TX, and am quite familiar with hurricanes and their impact on the Gulf Coast. I am much less familiar with Pacific huricanes (cyclones) and their normal paths/impacts.

The global sea surface temperature has risen uniformly, from the graph in the second paper, it seems. Because huricanes thrive on high surface temperature, it also seems that we should see the trends (if they exist) of more frequent and stronger storms mirrored in the Pacific cyclones as we supposedly see in the Atlantic huricanes.

Have any studies been conducted along these lines?

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