Impacts of Weather on the
Vegetable Processing Industry
Robert J. Allen
Agricultural Research and Services
Fruit and Vegetable Processing Crops
Batavia, IL
rjaeh@inil.com
Overview
Weather plays an integral part of agriculture production in the U.S. The vegetable processing
industry (canning and freezing) in the U.S. constitutes approximately 1.3 million acres,
producing 6.1 to 6.8 million tons of raw product with a value of $750 million. This paper will
focus on the use of weather information in the vegetable production portion of the processing
industry. Del Monte Foods is one of the world's leading processors of fruits, vegetables and
tomatoes. The company contracts approximately 100,000 acres of vegetables (asparagus to
zucchini) which produces about 480,000 tons of raw product. The major bulk of production is in
snap beans, sweet corn and green peas.
Weather information (historical, current and future) is more critical to the vegetable processing
industry than other segments of agriculture. Commodity crops, grain corn, soybeans, etc., are for
the most part planted in a relatively narrow period of time and harvested when the crops are
physiologically mature. Vegetable crops on the other hand must be planted on a tight schedule to
provide orderly harvest and delivery to a processing plant. Growing seasons, planting to harvest,
for major vegetables are typically 60 to 90 days. The majority of vegetables must be harvested
and processed within a 24 to 48 hour period to maintain peak of quality.
Weather information is, therefore, critical to all stages of planning, planting, pest control and
harvest of vegetable production.
Planning
Processing facility capacity - tons per day - is a function of the physical limitations of facility
equipment. Using historical weather data, planting and harvest schedules are developed to
determine how many acres are to be planted to provide for processing facility daily tonnage
requirements. At Del Monte, a raw product forecast system is used to aid in the planning,
planting and harvesting stages of crop production. The system provides a model of planting and
harvest dates as well as yield forecast. Historical data - daily high-low temperature averages,
rainfall, frost and freeze dates are used to provide models for each crop each year.
Planting
Once the planting season starts, daily and near term 2 to 7 day forecasts are used to provide field
personnel guidelines on what adjustments are required to the planting schedule during the
following week. These schedules must reflect the impact of temperature (heat units) and moisture
forecasts for the coming period. Daily adjustments are made, keeping in mind that plant capacity
is fixed and that over and/or under supply affect operating costs. Satellite data transmission
services are currently in use to provide current weather information, forecast information and
satellite/radar information. Adjustments based on actual weather events and short range
forecasts are used to ensure volumes meet production plant capacities.
Pest Control
Most pest problems (insects and diseases) of vegetable crops vary in intensity, depending upon
weather conditions. Local "atmospheric" characteristics (hourly and daily) can influence the
degree of pest pressure on the crop. Large scale weather patterns can also contribute to a large
degree to the intensity of pest problems. Chemical spraying measures can be organized within
24 to 48 hours lead time to provide control. These control measures are costly and critical to
maintaining quality and yield. A single spray application ranges from $10 to $15 per acre. Sweet
corn, for example, can require up to several treatments for insect control. Accurate short-term
and, to some extent, 30 -ay forecasts can play a major role in the formulating decisions on number
and timing of applications.
Harvest
Most vegetable crops have a very narrow harvest window to maintain optimum quality. In order
to maintain reasonable plant production, 5 day tonnage forecasts are prepared and updated daily.
The tonnage forecast must take into account short term (1 to 5 days) weather forecasts. Longer
term forecasts (6 to 10 days) are used to "look ahead" to anticipate the impact weather will have
on future volumes. This information, both short-term and long-term, is used to enable production
personnel to adjust crewing on a shift-to-shift and or a day-to-day basis. The accuracy of
forecasts is critical to production decisions on daily crewing and to maintaining quality of
processed product throughout the season.
Financial Implications
The year-to-year variation from planned production targets is primarily the result of weather
events. Sales are based on annual forecasts; target volumes can be missed (above or below)
primarily due to seasonal weather variability. It is estimated that annually 6% of planted acreage
is not harvested, primarily due to weather related events. On a national scale the lost production
is estimated to be valued at $42.5 million.
Weather cannot be avoided, but accurate short-term and long-term forecasts can be instrumental
in maintaining orderly flows of raw product to processing facilities, at optimum costs and at the
peak of quality.
Societal Aspects of Weather
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