The Governance of Sport
ETHN 3104

Tentative Schedule and Readings

Week 9 - March 11

  • Sport as a Laboratory 1 – Can We Predict the Future?
  • Individual assignment TBA

Case study: Olympic Medals Prediction: Is Valued Added?

Johnson, D. K. and A. Ali, 2004. A Tale of Two Seasons: Participation and Medal Counts at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games, Social Science Quarterly, 4:974-993.

Brean, J. 2012. Professor has a surprisingly accurate formula for prediction Olympic medal results, Financial Post, March 13.

Pielke, Jr., R. 2012. Accuracy and skill in predicting sporting outcomes, The Least Thing, March 15.

Pielke, Jr., R. 2012. Skill in prediction: Olympic medals edition, The Least Thing, July 30.

Theory and context

Stekler, H. O. D. Sendor and R. Verlander, 2010. Issues in sports forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, 26: 606-621.

Pielke, Jr. R. A. 2009. United States hurricane landfalls and damages: Can one- to five-year predictions beat climatology? Environmental Hazards 8:187-200.

**Optional for a deep dive: M. Mauboussin, 2012. The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, Harvard University Press.