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Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature

Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature

Edited by Daniel Sarewitz, Roger A. Pielke, Jr., and Radford Byerly, Jr.

Table of Contents

Introduction: Death, Taxes, and Environmental Policy
Daniel Sarewitz, Roger A. Pielke, Jr., and Radford Byerly, Jr.

Part I: Prediction as a Problem

1. Prediction in Science and Policy
Daniel Sarewitz and Roger A. Pielke, Jr.

2. Why Predict? Historical Perspectives on Prediction in Earth Science
Naomi Oreskes

3. Uncertainty, Judgment, and Error in Prediction
Thomas R. Stewart

Part II: Disasters Waiting to Happen: Predicting Natural Hazards

4. Short-Term Weather Prediction: An Orchestra in Need of a Conductor
William H. Hooke and Roger Pielke, Jr.

5. Flood Prediction: Immersed in the Quagmire of National Flood Mitigation Strategy
Stanley A. Changnon

6. The Asteroid/Comet Impact Hazard: Homo Sapiens as Dinosaur?
Clark R. Chapman

7. Predicting Earthquakes: Science, Pseudoscience, and Public Policy Paradox
Joanne M. Nigg

Part III: Foreordained Conclusions: Prediction and Politics

8. What You Know Can Hurt You: Predicting the Behavior of Nourished Beaches
Orrin H. Pilkey

9. Is This Number to Your Liking? Water Quality Predictions in Mining Impact Studies
Robert E. Moran

10. From Tin Roof to Torn Wet Blanket: Predicting and Observing Groundwater Movement at a Proposed Nuclear Waste Site
Daniel Metlay

Part IV: Cascades of Uncertainty: Prediction and Policy

11. Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal: Diminishing Reserves, Increasing Supplies
Donald L. Gautier

12. Predictive Modeling of Acid Rain: Obstacles to Generating Useful Information
Charles Herrick

13. Prediction and Other Approaches to Climate Change Policy
Steve Rayner

Part V: Prediction in Perspective

14. Alternatives to Prediction
Ronald D. Brunner

15. Prediction in Society
Dale Jamieson

16. Prediction in Characteristic Times
Radford Byerly, Jr.

17. A Decision Framework for Prediction in Environmental Policy
Charles Herrick and J. Michael Pendleton

Part VI: Conclusion

18. Decision Making and the Future of Nature: Understanding and Using Predictions Roger A Pielke, Jr., Daniel Sarewitz, and Radford Byerly, Jr.