Public Understanding of Cap and Trade
May 12th, 2009Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.
Rassmussen Reports suggest that public understanding of cap and trade is pretty low:
The gap between Capitol Hill and Main Street is huge when it comes to the so-called “cap-and-trade” legislation being considered in Congress. So wide, in fact, that few voters even know what the proposed legislation is all about.
Given a choice of three options, just 24% of voters can correctly identify the cap-and-trade proposal as something that deals with environmental issues. A slightly higher number (29%) believe the proposal has something to do with regulating Wall Street while 17% think the term applies to health care reform. A plurality (30%) have no idea.
Democrats are pushing the legislation on Capitol Hill, but Democrats around the country are a bit less likely than Republicans and voters not affiliated with either party to know that the concept has something to do with the environment. . .
Sixty-nine percent (69%) say health care issues are more important while just 15% say global warming is a higher priority.
While the public view is clear, opinion among the Political Class is more evenly divided: 45% say health care is more important while 38% name global warming. Seven percent (7%) of Americans belong to the Political Class, and another seven percent (7%) lean in that direction.
Would a greater level of public understanding of cap and trade lead to more or less support? What does it mean that more Republicans than Democrats understand the phrase? Does it matter if the elite out ahead of the public?
May 12th, 2009 at 5:35 am
First, GOP voters always have a better understanding of proposed legislation than Democratic voters. That’s been true on a consistent basis for many, many years. [E.g. People who listen to Rush Limbaugh have more education, work longer hours, and make substantially higher incomes than the average American voter.]
Second, the general inadequacy of understanding by the general public is another indication of the pathetically poor quality of journalism today.
As for your questions — a better level of public understanding would sink any chance of cap and trade passing. And the elite is clearly in a different place from the general public. Whether that is “ahead” is questionable. Throughout history elites have been more likely to embrace disastrous behavior and policy.
May 12th, 2009 at 7:53 am
I think the primary reason that cap and trade receives more support among politicians than a carbon tax is that it does a better job of obfuscating the cost to the public. Increased public understanding can only reduce support.
May 12th, 2009 at 8:24 am
Since cap and trade would harm the economy, and cost consumers, less understanding will lead to more support. Maybe, just maybe, that’s why the administration is working to obfuscate the issue with a marketing firm.
More Republicans are likely to understand the issue because of the bifurcation of the news providers. Republican opponents of cap and trade attack the operation of the tax and reach other Republicans through conservative outlets. Democratic proponents of tax and trade talk about saving the planet and the plight of the Polar Bears and reach other Democrats through most of the media.
Of course the “elite” are out in front of the public. If the public really understood what they are doing they would no longer be elite.
May 12th, 2009 at 9:27 am
We are probably doomed by the unbelievable ignorance of our public. Hell, not only don’t most people know what cap and trade refers to, many high school graduates don’t even know the difference between capitalism and socialism. http://spectator.org/archives/2009/05/12/students-confusion-about-capit
May 12th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
I agree that greater public understanding would reduce support. However, in an act NOW think later environment public support or opposition does not matter. An imminent crisis trumps public opinion and debate.
May 12th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
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