Space Shuttle Costs
February 10th, 2005Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.
The table below shows the costs of the Space Shuttle program from its inception through 2003 (in 2003 $). The data come from a paper of mine in 1994 (1971-1993) and the Gehman report on the Columbia accident (1994-2003). The data show that the space shuttle program has cost $145 billion over its existence and about $112 billion since the program became operational. The average cost/flight has been about $1.3 billion over the life of the program and about $750 million over its most recent five years of operations.
According to the FY2006 NASA budget request the Space Shuttle program is expected to cost (in millions of 2004 $) through 2010:
4060.9 2004
4543.0 2005
4530.6 2006
4172.4 2007
3865.7 2008
2815.1 2009
2419.2 2010
Because NASA has costs for the Shuttle program that are not reflected in the shuttle line item, it is appropriate to add 10% to these totals (see Pielke, 1994 for discussion) and also to adjust to 2003 dollars (to make consistent with the data table). If the program is terminated after 2010, then it will have a total lifetime costs of $173,423 million or about $173 billion. If the program averages 4 flights per year upon a return to flight, then the shuttle will fly an additional 22 times, for a total of 134 flights over its lifetime. This will result in a total program cost per flight of $1.3 billion. Interestingly, the average cost per flight from 2004-2010 is also $1.3 billion. The average cost per flight from the middle of 2005 through 2010, assuming 22 flights, is about $1.0 billion.
All of these number fall squarely within the range Rad Byerly and I projected in a 1992 paper on the performance of the space shuttle program through 2010. See the paper here:
Pielke Jr., R.A., and R. Byerly Jr., 1992: The Space Shuttle Program: Performance versus Promise. Chapter in Space Policy Alternatives, edited by R. Byerly, Westview Press, Boulder, 223-245. (PDF)
And for a study of space policy and why the space shuttle program has performed as it has, see this paper:
Pielke Jr., R. A., 1993: A Reappraisal of the Space Shuttle Program. Space Policy, May, 133-157. (PDF)
Costs of the Space Shuttle Program 1971-2003
Roger Pielke, Jr pielke@colorado.edu
University of Colorado Center for Science and Technology Policy Research
| Current | Deflator | Constant ‘03 | Adjusted ** | Flights | 5-yr MA Cost/Flight | % Change | Notes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1971 | $ 78.5 | 39.713 | $ 208.0 | $ 208.0 | ||||
| 1972 | $ 155.9 | 41.815 | $ 392.3 | $ 392.3 | 88.6% | |||
| 1973 | $ 296.7 | 44.224 | $ 706.0 | $ 706.0 | 79.9% | |||
| 1974 | $ 656.7 | 44.001 | $ 1,570.6 | $ 1,570.6 | 122.5% | |||
| 1975 | $1,010.7 | 43.916 | $ 2,421.9 | $ 2,421.9 | 54.2% | |||
| 1976 | $1,813.6 | 46.256 | $ 4,125.9 | $ 4,125.9 | 70.4% | Includes Transitional Quarter | ||
| 1977 | $1,652.5 | 48.391 | $ 3,593.6 | $ 3,593.6 | -12.9% | |||
| 1978 | $1,645.9 | 51.085 | $ 3,390.5 | $ 3,390.5 | -5.7% | |||
| 1979 | $1,896.5 | 52.699 | $ 3,787.0 | $ 3,787.0 | 11.7% | |||
| 1980 | $2,125.2 | 52.579 | $ 4,253.4 | $ 4,253.4 | 12.3% | |||
| 1981 | $2,254.7 | 53.904 | $ 4,401.7 | $ 4,401.7 | 1 | 3.5%2 | flights, 1 operational | |
| 1982 | $3,459.1 | 52.860 | $ 6,886.3 | $ 6,886.3 | 3 | 56.4% | ||
| 1983 | $3,498.7 | 55.249 | $ 6,663.9 | $ 6,663.9 | 4 | -3.2% | ||
| 1984 | $3,445.8 | 59.220 | $ 6,123.1 | $ 6,123.1 | 5 | -8.1% | ||
| 1985 | $3,120.1 | 61.666 | $ 5,324.4 | $ 5,324.4 | 9 | $ 717.2 | -13.0% | |
| 1986 | $3,344.1 | 63.804 | $ 5,515.4 | $ 5,515.4 | 2 | $ 733.4 | 3.6% | |
| 1987 | $5,453.2 | 65.958 | $ 8,700.3 | $ 8,700.3 | 0 | $ 943.1 | 57.7% | Challenger replacement |
| 1988 | $3,302.7 | 68.684 | $ 5,060.1 | $ 5,060.1 | 2 | $ 1,037.0 | -41.8% | |
| 1989 | $4,214.2 | 71.116 | $ 6,235.8 | $ 6,235.8 | 5 | $ 1,079.7 | 23.2% | |
| 1990 | $4,293.0 | 72.451 | $ 6,235.4 | $ 6,235.4 | 6 | $ 1,373.8 | 0.0% | |
| 1991 | $4,564.4 | 72.329 | $ 6,640.8 | $ 6,640.8 | 6 | $ 1,148.8 | 6.5% | |
| 1992 | $4,775.0 | 74.734 | $ 6,723.6 | $ 6,723.6 | 8 | $ 783.3 | 1.2% | |
| 1993 | $4,078.0 | 76.731 | $ 5,592.7 | $ 6,152.0 | 7 | $ 685.1 | -16.8% | Discontinuity in data sources Pielke/Gehman |
| 1994 | $3,778.7 | 79.816 | $ 4,982.0 | $ 5,480.2 | 7 | $ 632.0 | -10.9% | |
| 1995 | $3,155.1 | 81.814 | $ 4,058.2 | $ 4,464.0 | 7 | $ 581.5 | -18.5% | |
| 1996 | $3,178.8 | 84.842 | $ 3,942.8 | $ 4,337.0 | 7 | $ 526.8 | -2.8% | |
| 1997 | $3,150.9 | 88.658 | $ 3,739.9 | $ 4,113.9 | 8 | $ 481.7 | -5.1% | |
| 1998 | $2,927.8 | 92.359 | $ 3,335.9 | $ 3,669.5 | 5 | $ 476.2 | -10.8% | |
| 1999 | $3,028.0 | 96.469 | $ 3,303.1 | $ 3,633.4 | 3 | $ 514.7 | -1.0% | |
| 2000 | $3,011.2 | 100.000 | $ 3,168.7 | $ 3,485.6 | 5 | $ 546.3 | -4.1% | |
| 2001 | $3,125.7 | 100.506 | $ 3,272.7 | $ 3,599.9 | 6 | $ 564.6 | 3.3% | |
| 2002 | $3,278.8 | 102.710 | $ 3,359.3 | $ 3,695.2 | 5 | $ 640.5 | 2.6% | |
| 2003 | $3,252.8 | 105.232 | $ 3,252.8 | $ 3,578.1 | 1 | $ 784.8 | -3.2% | |
| Avg Cost/Flight | Avg Adj Cost/Flight | |||||||
| Total | $ 140,967.9 | $ 145,168.7 | 112 | $ 1,258.6 | $1,296.1 | |||
| 1982-2002 | $ 108,864.4 | $ 112,739.9 | 110 | $ 989.7 | $1,024.9 | |||
| 1992-2002 | $ 38,755.3 | $ 42,630.8 | 68 | $ 569.9 | $ 626.9 | |||
| 1998-2002 | $ 16,439.7 | $ 18,083.6 | 24 | $ 685.0 | $ 753.5 | |||
Sources
Pielke 1994, Gehman 2003, 2004 Economic Report of the President
** Note on adjusted data, Gehman budgets increased by 10% to make more consistent with Pielke 1994
July 19th, 2005 at 11:57 am
Only 1.3B per flight. A bargain at double the price! Think about it. Think about all the good stuff that NASA has done on these great flights! The 145B spent since NASA’s Shuttle program started is now buried very deeply in the overall 7.6 Trillion National Debt. At current low interest rates we could go on for for millenia like this.Again American Exceptionalism triumphs. Way to go !!