Peter Webster on Predicting Tropical Cyclones

April 16th, 2008

Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.

Some wise words from Georgia Tech’s Peter Webster on our ability to predict the future incidence of tropical cyclones (or TCs, which includes hurricanes):

Unless we can explain physically the history of the number and intensity of TCs in the recent past, then determining the number and intensity of TCs in the future will be either an extrapolation of very poor data sets or a belief in incomplete and inexact models.

One Response to “Peter Webster on Predicting Tropical Cyclones”

  1. Russ Says:

    Basically, I think that Webster is saying that until we understand what causes TCs, we are just drawing a random number when these predictions are made.