Serendipitous Emissions Elasticity Experiment
March 20th, 2009Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.
The IMF projects global GDP to decrease this year for the first time in 60 years (below from BBC).
When we eventually learn what happens to global emissions in response to the economic downturn, we will learn something new about the relationship of GDP growth and emissions. In recent years that relationship has strengthened. What will 2009 tell us?
[Update]
Courtesy of Benny Peiser this translation of a Der Spiegel story on this exact subject today:
CO2 emissions increase despite crisis: researchers are puzzled
Contrary to all expectations, the financial and economic crisis does not appear to have slowed down the expected increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The concentration of carbon dioxide during the past year has risen above average, despite the fact that global economic growth was significantly weaker in 2008 than in 2007. These are the provisional results of the Global Carbon Project (GCP), an international research initiative which focuseson the global carbon cycle. Their data for 2008 will be officially published in the summer.
GCP Executive Director Pep Canadell told SPIEGEL ONLINE that the 2008 level of CO2 in the atmosphere had risen by 2.3 ppm, to around 385 ppm. The average increase during the previous nine years had been 2.0 ppm. “That really surprised us because the strong economic downturn began already in 2008,” said Canadell, a biologist in the department of marine and atmospheric research at the Australian government research organization, CSIRO in Canberra.
According to Canadell, the global gross national product (GDP) was 2.5 percent last year, despite the onset of the economic crisis. But it was not as strong as in 2007 when global GDP grew by 3.2 percent. Accordingly, the energy consumption of industrialized and emerging countries actually declined in 2008 – and thus also the associated global carbon dioxide emissions. [...]
GCP’s experts are unable to explain the exact reason for this anomaly since they haven’t fully analysed the 2008 data yet. However, Canadell, by its own admission, cannot imagine that greenhouse gas emissions could have accelerated in spite of lower economic growth. The CSIRO-ecologist considers it more likely that natural carbon sinks are showing signs of exhaustion and are losing their ability to soak up emissions. [...]
March 20th, 2009 at 7:50 am
Roger
Today’s Spiegel Online features a news story on the 2008 rise in CO2 levels. It would appear that the rise in CO2 emissions has actually accelerated last year – in spite of a significant downturn in global economic output. According to the report, Pep Canadell of the the Global Carbon Project is speculating that the anomaly may be due to the “exhaustion” of natural carbon sinks. It remains unclear, however, why the alleged “exhaustion” would show up suddenly in 2008 – and not in any previous year during which CO2 emissions increased at a steady rate. If this explanation were to be true, one would expect CO2 emissions in coming years to rise increasingly faster. Anyway, here’s the Spiegel story:
CO2 emissions increase despite crisis: researchers are puzzled
Contrary to all expectations, the financial and economic crisis does not appear to have slowed down the expected increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The concentration of carbon dioxide during the past year has risen above average, despite the fact that global economic growth was significantly weaker in 2008 than in 2007. These are the provisional results of the Global Carbon Project (GCP), an international research initiative which focuseson the global carbon cycle. Their data for 2008 will be officially published in the summer.
GCP Executive Director Pep Canadell told SPIEGEL ONLINE that the 2008 level of CO2 in the atmosphere had risen by 2.3 ppm, to around 385 ppm. The average increase during the previous nine years had been 2.0 ppm. “That really surprised us because the strong economic downturn began already in 2008,” said Canadell, a biologist in the department of marine and atmospheric research at the Australian government research organization, CSIRO in Canberra.
According to Canadell, the global gross national product (GDP) was 2.5 percent last year, despite the onset of the economic crisis. But it was not as strong as in 2007 when global GDP grew by 3.2 percent. Accordingly, the energy consumption of industrialized and emerging countries actually declined in 2008 – and thus also the associated global carbon dioxide emissions. [...]
GCP’s experts are unable to explain the exact reason for this anomaly since they haven’t fully analysed the 2008 data yet. However, Canadell, by its own admission, cannot imagine that greenhouse gas emissions could have accelerated in spite of lower economic growth. The CSIRO-ecologist considers it more likely that natural carbon sinks are showing signs of exhaustion and are losing their ability to soak up emissions. [...]
http://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/natur/0,1518,614208,00.html
March 20th, 2009 at 8:34 am
Thanks Benny, I have updated the post with your translation, thanks.
March 20th, 2009 at 9:25 am
It seems strange that they don’t consider that:
1) The movement of industry from developed to developing economies has resulted in an increase in CO2 production per unit of global GDP.
2) CO2 emissions are influenced by the total human population more than they are influenced by the GDP.
3) There is a natural component to the CO2 rise that is being ignored.
March 20th, 2009 at 10:20 am
The oceans have continued to cool in 2008 which would have increased the amount of atmospheric CO2 absorption. I think Raven is correct that the transfer of industry to developing nations is raising CO2 output per unit of production. Then there is the possibility that non-ocean natural sources have increased emissions. And finally it is possible that we are overlooking something fundamental in our understanding of atmospheric CO2.
March 20th, 2009 at 10:34 am
It has been awhile since I studied the carbon cycle literature, but I’m pretty sure I remember reading a few studies that clearly indicated that year-to-year fluctuations in the natural sources and sinks of CO2 are comparable to the year-to-year fluctuations in anthropogenic emissions. So it is unreasonable to expect a one-to-one correspondence between the rates of change of the economy and the rates of change of CO2.
March 20th, 2009 at 3:03 pm
The year-to-date increase of atmospheric CO2 is better modeled by the temperature response to sinks than the annual emission growth:
http://home.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/co2lt_2007.gif
R-script for graph:
http://home.casema.nl/errenwijlens/co2/co2_lt_noaa.R