Why Cap and Trade Will Become Law

April 6th, 2009

Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.

There is virtually no chance that cap and trade legislation will lead to reduced emissions of carbon dioxide. However, this fact probably won’t be much of an obstacle to cap and trade legislation passing sometime in the next few years. Here is why:

Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin (D-Md.) called cap-and-trade “the most significant revenue-generating proposal of our time” . . .

Don’t expect most members of Congress — Democrat or Republican — to turn their back on this opportunity. Clive Crook at the FT explains the underlying fiscal problem.

3 Responses to “Why Cap and Trade Will Become Law”

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  1. Maurice Garoutte Says:
    April 6th, 2009 at 8:43 am

    If there’s anything politicians want more than money it’s power. Democrats see the cap and trade as both, money for their programs and power from donations from the traders who take a percentage of every CO2 allowance.

    Republicans see cap and trade as a political hammer to beat down the Democratic majority. The policy has already been re-branded as cap and tax and could be the largest tax increase in history. If a massive and regressive tax is passed by the people who promised to tax only the rich there will be a 1992 style change in congress next year. Of the 36 Senate seats up for election in 2010, 17 are held by Democrats.

    If I could think of some way that climate might be affected by this political power play I would have mentioned it right here. (Crickets)

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  2. Pielke: Cap and Trade Certain – NearWalden Says:
    April 6th, 2009 at 5:27 pm

    [...] Roger Pielke, Jr on Why Cap and Trade Will Become Law…. [...]

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  3. stan Says:
    April 7th, 2009 at 5:08 am

    Congress has always had the ability to pass measures which generate tremendous tax revenue (subject to diminishing returns). The fact that a proposal is a huge generator of tax revenue doesn’t mean it is a slam dunk to pass.

    The only way cap and trade passes is if the people don’t understand that it is an enormous tax. While I am sure they will try to do all they can for the team, I don’t think the news media is capable of keeping that information from the public.

    The news media is fast becoming a political version of the Maginot Line.