Buying Time
November 2nd, 2008Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.
What happens when targets for carbon dioxide reduction run up against economic realities? A decision by the EU last week provides one answer:
EU member states are ready to grant automakers a three-year delay until 2015 to reduce the CO2 emissions of their new vehicles, in light of the global economic crisis, negotiators said Saturday.
During a meeting Friday of representatives of the 27 nations, “a consensus was reached” on pushing back the original 2012 deadline to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, one of the negotiators said.
Several colleagues confirmed his remarks, as European automakers grapple with bloated inventories and falling sales brought on by the credit crunch and a wider economic downturn.
The lesson here is one that we have suggested on many occasions. While politics and technologies are related like the chicken and the egg, securing political agreement on meaningful targets and timetables for carbon dioxide reductions will occur after technologies are available and costs are certain, not vice-versa.
Der Spiegel has a very interesting article on the dissonance in Europe over the auto industry and carbon emissions.
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:13 am
Bloated inventories? Driving around here, I see loads of SUV’s car lots. While these gas guzzlers are clogging lots, car dealers aren’t going to have room to buy and display other cars. This means no matter what gas costs, these vehicles will be sold to someone. The prices may end up low– but at some price, the cost savings at purchase will pay for a lot of gas.
The vehicles will be driven by some owner until their useful life is ended.
Out of curiosity, how is the credit crunch affecting construction of power plants to replace coal fired plants?
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:33 pm
[...] Cross posted from Prometheus [...]
November 3rd, 2008 at 10:55 pm
Roger, I would think that a more defendable position is that countries will be willing to incur significant DOMESTIC pain for carbon dioxide reductions will occur only if trading partners agree to share to the pain.
Technology did not precede all purely domestic environmental protection laws; the difference here is that the tragedy of the commons involved is one that can’t be solved by any country acting alone.