An interesting article about the limitations to regional climate predictions and corresponding irreducible uncertainty:

Nature 428, 593 (08 April 2004); doi:10.1038/428593a
Modellers deplore ’short-termism’ on climate
By QUIRIN SCHIERMEIER

“Projections of climate change in, say, Florida or the Alps carry more political weight than vague warnings about global warming. And for almost two decades, specialists in regional climate assessment have sought to make such projections.

But their success has been limited, a meeting of regional-climate modellers in Lund, Sweden, acknowledged last week. Our understanding of regional climate change will remain uncertain, the modellers said. And, some speakers suggested, policy-makers’ expectations of precise local projections need to be dampened down.”

Full story:
http://www.nature.com/cgi-taf/Dynapage.taf?file=/nature/journal/v428/n6983/full/428593a_fs.html