Kudos to Kerry Emanuel

April 11th, 2008

Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.

I have always held Kerry Emanuel in high regard, because he calls things like he sees them, but he also listens to others who might not share his views. He is, in short, a great scientist.

So it was not too surprising to see that Kerry’s views have evolved on the issue of hurricanes and climate change, as science has progressed. A Houston Chronicle story reports today the following:

One of the most influential scientists behind the theory that global warming has intensified recent hurricane activity says he will reconsider his stand.

The hurricane expert, Kerry Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, this week unveiled a novel technique for predicting hurricane activity. The new work suggests that, even in a dramatically warming world, hurricane frequency and intensity may not substantially rise during the next two centuries.

The research, appearing in the March issue of Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, is all the more remarkable coming from Emanuel, a highly visible leader in his field and long an ardent proponent of a link between global warming and much stronger hurricanes.

His changing views could influence other scientists.

“The results surprised me,” Emanuel said of his work, adding that global warming may still play a role in raising the intensity of hurricanes but what that role is remains far from certain.

I emailed Kerry to ask if the story accurately reflected his views. He replied that it was a bit exaggerated, but basically OK. Those engaged in the political debate over climate change who are skeptical of a link between hurricanes and climate change might try to make some hay from this news report. But here at Prometheus we’d suggest viewing Kerry’s evolving view in the much broader context, which we have shared on multiple occasions, namely:

there are good reasons to expect that any conclusive connection between global warming and hurricanes or their impacts will not be made in the near term.

So don’t get to excited about the latest paper in hurricane climatology, the field evolves slowly, and the views of of our best scientists evolve with it.

5 Responses to “Kudos to Kerry Emanuel”

    1
  1. Eric Berger Says:

    I hope Kerry doesn’t think I exaggerated his reputation!

    Seriously, I think the paper, which is written frankly and clearly shows his doubts about the relationship between global warming and hurricane intensity, displays his open mind about the topic. There are idealogues everywhere in the global warming debate. Many are Republicans who loathe Al Gore, but there are definitely scientists who are idealogues as well. Clearly Emanuel is not among them.

    This reporter also appreciates him because he’s wonderfully accessible.

    Eric Berger

  2. 2
  3. charlesH Says:

    Maybe at least some AGW scientists have figured out that if “the science is settled” we can shift resources from doing science to implementing solutions.

    I think “more study is needed” will be the mantra for a very long time.

  4. 3
  5. charlesH Says:

    Maybe at least some AGW scientists have figured out that if “the science is settled” we can shift resources from doing science to implementing solutions.

    I think “more study is needed” will be the mantra for a very long time.

  6. 4
  7. Harry Haymuss Says:

    That’s funny Charles. You think the science is settled? How can the “science be settled” when exactly zero models predicted this:
    http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=17257

    No, there is a long way to go. We can either let a few people get really rich off everyone else’s suffering (and they have one heck of a propaganda machine going), or we can spend our resources figuring out what’s really going on. Our computational ability is extremely weak, as shown in Figure 10 at the bottom of this:
    http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2000/annrev00.pdf

    Then, of course, we have this for those without the bigger picture in mind:
    http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/0530earthgreen.html

    As Emanuel shows, the more we know the more we know we don’t know. If you think the science is settled, where does that put you on that spectrum?

  8. 5
  9. Harry Haymuss Says:

    Oops – I was incorrect when I stated no models predict Antarctica cooling. This one does:
    http://www.dsri.dk/~hsv/Noter/solsys99.html