Swine Flu, Technology and Policy
April 27th, 2009Posted by: admin
This is not the first time flu and technology have intersected. While Google Flu Trends is currently mum on the swine flu, you can track CDC notices via Twitter or its official Swine Flu page. Global tweets are also available (H/T Marc Ambinder).
A couple of policy points worth making here. We currently have an acting director of the Centers for Disease Control, no doubt at least in part due to the continuing absence of a confirmed Secretary of Health and Human Services. While that might also explain why Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano has been the highest profile government face on this issue, it’s a good argument to try and make sure the transition process can happen more smoothly and more quickly to allow for staff to take positions sooner after January 20 than is currently the case. Secondly, it would be worthwhile to evaluate the public health response in the U.S. to this flu (especially if it gets worse), and see what changes, if any, need to be made. $420 million in funds for pandemic flu were removed from the recent funding bills, and it would be nice to know whether that was a good call.
A final point. It’s relatively early in the process here. While the cases in the United States have not been as widespread, nor as lethal, as those in Mexico, we simply don’t know enough yet to be sure. This item from the New York Times explains some of the yet unanswered questions that will help map this particular outbreak. This post from Effect Measure helps explain what the numbers mean (and don’t mean) and what makes an epidemic, pandemic, and outbreak.
April 27th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
“$420 million in funds for pandemic flu were removed from the recent funding bills, and it would be nice to know whether that was a good call.”
Hindsight is always 20/20. Then again, there have been almost predictable cyclic outbreaks of new and deadly strain of flu since 1918.
What really is limiting our ability to respond to a crisis as might emerge is the archaic means of flu vaccine production. Even with unlimited financial resources, it’s not easy to immediately acquire millions of biotechnology grade chicken eggs. Scale-up is much faster with bioreactors, in which are made most other vaccines. I don’t know exactly why flu vaccines are still produced in chicken eggs. Culprits could be the adverse ecconomic incentives of strict regulation, low profit margins. Who wants to spend the money to modernize production when the FDA may not grant the new process approval anyway and the public is apt to blame your product for autism?
April 27th, 2009 at 12:38 pm
As sure as day follows night get ready for climate change to be tagged as the culprit. Before Copenhagen a few made to order studies will be released claiming climate change increases the frequency and severity of flu pandemics. The consensus will be that if we don’t decrease emissions 20% by 2020 then half the human population will die from flu pandemics by 2050.
Just watch and you will see the new studies rolled out on schedule to capitalize on the fear of the year. It is getting so predictable that it is descending into farce.
April 27th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Hmm,
Since this didn’t take off after recent spreads of West Nile, the avian flu, and SARS, I don’t see it as such a mortal lock.