More Peer-Reviewed Discussion on Hurricanes and Climate Change
May 15th, 2006Posted by: Roger Pielke, Jr.
In the May issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, a group of distinguished scientists have written a response to our 2005 article on Hurricanes and Global Warming. The scientists include Rick Anthes, Bob Correll, Greg Holland, Jim Hurrell, Mike MacCracken, and Kevin Trenberth. Our response is co-authored by the same group that brought you Pielke et al. 2005 – Pielke, Landsea, Mayfied, Laver, and Pasch. Links to the entire set of papers are below in reverse chronological order. I’ll be happy to address comments and questions on this exchange in the comments. Overall, I think that this is a fruitful exchange that clearly delineates some of the differing positions on this subject. Have a look!
Reply to Comment by Anthes et al. 2006: Pielke, Jr., R. A., C. W. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver, R. Pasch, 2006. Reply to Hurricanes and Global Warming Potential Linkages and Consequences, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87:628-631. (PDF)
Comment on Pielke et al. 2005: Anthes, R. A., R. W. Corell, G. Holland, J. W. Hurrell, M. C. McCracken, and K. E. Trenberth, 2006 Hurricanes and global warming: Potential linkage and consequences. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 87:623-628. (PDF)
Original paper: Pielke, Jr., R. A., C. Landsea, M. Mayfield, J. Laver and R. Pasch, 2005. Hurricanes and global warming, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 86:1571-1575. (PDF)
May 15th, 2006 at 11:15 am
Dr. Pielke–
I grew up in Galveston, TX, and am quite familiar with hurricanes and their impact on the Gulf Coast. I am much less familiar with Pacific huricanes (cyclones) and their normal paths/impacts.
The global sea surface temperature has risen uniformly, from the graph in the second paper, it seems. Because huricanes thrive on high surface temperature, it also seems that we should see the trends (if they exist) of more frequent and stronger storms mirrored in the Pacific cyclones as we supposedly see in the Atlantic huricanes.
Have any studies been conducted along these lines?
May 15th, 2006 at 11:24 am
JAI-
See these:
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/index.html#000800
http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/outreach/media_resources/hurricanes_globalwarming/
May 15th, 2006 at 1:05 pm
Here is another addition to the list of peer-reviewed articles on hurricanes and climate change:
Michaels, P.J., Knappenberger, P.C., Davis, R.E., 2006. Sea-surface temperatures and tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:1029/2006GL025757.
(available from http://www.worldclimatereport.com/wp-images/michaels_etal_GRL06.pdf)
May 15th, 2006 at 8:57 pm
On page 2 the 2 in CO2 should be a subscript.
In any case I look forward to the sequels.
May 15th, 2006 at 9:56 pm
Chip – and anyone else posting links here – to avoid confusion, please place a space after the last character of any link you post.
The close parentheses following Chip’s link to Michaels, P.J. et al is added to the end of the uri by the software used by this forum, resulting in an incorrect link. (This occurs because a close parentheses is allowed in a uri, therefor the software cannot readily ‘know’ that the close parentheses is not intended to be part of the uri. A space is not allowed in a uri, unless it is escaped.)
Correct link: http://www.worldclimatereport.com/wp-images/michaels_etal_GRL06.pdf
May 16th, 2006 at 11:08 am
In my humble opinion it boils down to this. if you build on the Gulf Coast you will be impacted, sooner or later by a hurricane. Arguing over how much sooner you will be impacted because global warming affects hurricanes obscures the real issue: why the heck should you build there in the first place.
May 17th, 2006 at 1:53 am
Roger C., if one can imagine things eventually returning to “normal” (as in the low hurricane levels of the ’60s-’70s), then it’s a lot easier to imagine trying to ride things out as contrasted to a future filled with increasing numbers of strong hurricanes.
May 17th, 2006 at 10:34 pm
A voice from afar http://www.wftv.com/news/9235304/detail.html#
May 19th, 2006 at 1:08 pm
Roger C,
The 60’s through the 80’s were hardly ‘normal’ in Florida. The lack of hurricanes was unprecident in the historical record. For example, the center of a hurricane did not pass within 50 miles of Ft. Myers (Southwest Florida) between Donna in 1960 to Charley in 2004. The biggest gap in the historical record before 1960 was from 1910 to 1924. From 1872 to 1960, the average was 2 hurricanes every 9.6 years! Southwest Florida needs to be hit by a hurricane every year for the next 8 years just to get back to the historical average!
It is too easy to give people the impression that “something is wrong” with the number of hurricanes these days. The facts indicate that the real anamoly was the lack of storms for several decades, not the current activity.
As to why would people live here? It is beautiful most of the time and we know how to prepare for those times that it isn’t. Not enough people do prepare, but we do know how to do it.